May 25, 2013

JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) Earnings Preview: Five Things to Watch


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Tags: JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) Stock Price, JP Morgan stock, JPM, JPM Earnings, JPM earnings preview, jpmorgan, JPMorgan earnings, NYSE: JPM

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JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) Earnings and Five Others That Could Surprise You


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Earnings season begins in earnest this week as financial giants JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) report for the April-to-June period.

A flood of reports from other corporations follows next week before gradually slowing to a trickle by the month’s end.

How investors perceive those numbers could well kick off an up- or downtrend in share prices that will continue for weeks, or even months.

That is especially true if there is an “earnings surprise.”

An “earnings surprise” occurs when the revenues and profits a company reports differ significantly from analyst expectations.

Positive surprises – earnings that beat the pre-report forecasts – tend to drive stock prices higher, while negative surprises send them lower.

The bigger the surprise, the more rapid and dramatic the move becomes.

Will JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) Earnings Surprise?

One prime candidate for an earnings surprise in this cycle is JPMorgan Chase.

Usually considered one of the strongest companies in the financial sector, JPM would normally be expected to surpass the pre-report estimates. After all, the company has beat earnings in three of the past four quarters – including an 11% surprise in the January-March period, when earnings came in at $1.31 a share vs. a projected $1.18.

However, the company has been rocked by controversy following revelations that it suffered more than $4 billion in trading losses on what JPM called a “hedging strategy” but others described as an outright “bet” on interest rates.

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JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) Earnings: Don’t Be Misled by Sagging Banking Sector


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As the grim bank earnings roll in over the next couple of weeks, beginning with JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) tomorrow (Friday) morning, don’t fall into the trap of thinking the financial sector’s woes in the last quarter reflect a sinking U.S. economy.

While bank earnings are usually a good barometer for the nation’s economy, many of the factors weighing down financials, such as tougher regulations and the Eurozone debt crisis, aren’t necessarily a reflection on U.S. economic activity.

In fact, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report, released Wednesday, the overall economy at the end of last year continued to improve slowly but steadily.

Friday the 13th for the Financials

Analysts have been consistently lowering earnings expectations for all the big banks in recent weeks.

“Friday the 13th will live up to its name when it comes to bank earnings,” Mike Mayo, an analyst with independent research firm CLSA in New York, told Bloomberg News. “You’re going to see all sorts of revenue and margin pressure and the results will be underwhelming.”

The consensus estimate for JPMorgan, the nation’s biggest bank by assets and a bellwether for the industry, has slid from $0.97 per share to $0.94 per share in the past month; three months ago the estimate was $1.11 per share.

That puts JPMorgan’s earnings below the $1.02 per share of the previous quarter and well below the $1.13 of the year-ago quarter. JPMorgan’s revenue is expected to drop 20.8% from first-quarter 2011.

And as disappointing as that sounds, JP Morgan will be one of the strongest performers this bleak bank earnings season, which follows a year in which some bank stocks fell more than 40%.

As the other major U.S. banks report earnings next week – Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC) on Tuesday, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) on Wednesday and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) on Thursday — the din of negativity will be hard to ignore.

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The Big Picture This Week: Earnings Season, Inflation


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Filed under: Economy, JP Morgan Chase, Google , Alcoa
As the market breathes a sigh of relief on hope that Europe isn’t going to fall apart and the unemployment picture isn’t getting worse, the focus shifts to China and earnings season.

With the th…

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